Goldman Sachs flips on oil-price forecasts and says $120 Brent could be next.

Goldman Sachs’ latest crude oil forecasts mark a notable reversal from its stance just a few months ago. In the third quarter, the bank’s analysts had trimmed their price outlook amid expectations of a supply surplus. Now, they have pivoted sharply, suggesting that Brent crude could climb toward $120 per barrel. This shift reflects a fundamental reassessment of market balances, likely driven by tightening physical supply and shifting demand dynamics rather than a single headline event.

The revision is significant because Goldman’s calls often serve as a barometer for institutional positioning. A move to $120 would represent a substantial re-rating of energy costs, with direct implications for inflation expectations and central bank policy. For investors, the key takeaway is not the specific price target but the underlying signal: the bank now sees the risk of undersupplied markets persisting longer than previously modeled.

What to watch next is the actual trajectory of inventories and OPEC+ output decisions. If stockpiles continue to draw down at the current pace, the $120 scenario gains credibility. Conversely, a faster-than-expected return of spare capacity could render the forecast obsolete. The market will be parsing weekly inventory data and cartel communications for confirmation of which path is more likely.