The ECB is virtually certain to raise rates. Wall Street is bracing for what comes next.

The European Central Bank is widely expected to raise interest rates at today's meeting, a move that would mark another step in its ongoing effort to bring inflation back toward target. Market participants broadly anticipate the decision, so attention is likely to shift quickly from the hike itself to the guidance accompanying it.

The more consequential debate concerns where rates will ultimately peak. Bond markets are not fully aligned on the terminal rate for this tightening cycle, reflecting uncertainty about how much further the ECB believes it needs to go. That disagreement can show up in yield curves and rate-sensitive sectors as investors reassess the path ahead.

Developments in the Middle East add another layer of complexity. Their effect on energy prices could influence headline inflation and, in turn, shape how policymakers weigh further moves. For observers, the key items to watch are the ECB's forward guidance, the tone of the press conference, and any signals about the balance between fighting inflation and supporting growth.