Your Social Security check could go up another $71 next year. That’s not necessarily good news.

A larger Social Security cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA, would put more dollars in retirees' monthly checks. But the reason behind a bigger increase matters more than the headline number. COLA is tied to inflation readings, so a raise of roughly $71 per month would signal that price pressures across the economy remain stubborn rather than resolved.

For markets, that distinction is significant. Persistent inflation can keep the Federal Reserve cautious about cutting interest rates, which in turn affects bond yields, borrowing costs, and equity valuations. Retirees may also find that a higher check does not stretch as far if the same inflation eroding its value is also pushing up food, housing, and health care costs.

What to watch: the official COLA figure when it is announced, the inflation data feeding into it, and any shift in rate expectations. A bigger check is welcome — but it is a symptom, not a cure.