How many rate hikes are on tap? Wall Street hopes to connect the Fed’s ‘dots.’

The Federal Reserve's policy meeting this week carries more weight than usual, because investors are focused not only on whether officials raise interest rates, but on how much further borrowing costs might climb. If the central bank does hike this week as part of its effort to tame inflation, attention will quickly shift to the Fed's so-called dot plot — the anonymous projections in which policymakers chart their expected path for rates over coming years.

Those dots matter because markets price in expectations about the future, not just today's decision. A dot plot suggesting a higher or faster path than investors anticipate can tighten financial conditions on its own, pushing up yields and weighing on rate-sensitive sectors. A more moderate set of projections can have the opposite effect.

What to watch: the gap between the median dot and market-implied expectations, any shift in the projected peak rate, and whether officials signal a slower pace ahead. Those signals shape how households, businesses, and investors plan for the cost of credit.