'We simply don't know' - JP Morgan struggling to forecast oil prices due to Trump's war with Iran - BBC

JP Morgan has acknowledged that it is finding it unusually difficult to forecast oil prices, citing uncertainty tied to the geopolitical standoff between the United States and Iran. The bank's admission, reported by the BBC, reflects a broader challenge facing analysts: when policy decisions and conflict risks hinge on unpredictable political developments, conventional supply-and-demand models lose much of their explanatory power.

For markets, the key takeaway is that uncertainty itself can be a driver. Oil prices tend to react not only to actual disruptions in supply but also to the perceived likelihood of them. When a major bank says it "simply doesn't know," it signals that risk premiums may shift quickly on headlines alone, and that volatility could remain elevated regardless of underlying inventories or production levels.

What to watch: further signals from Washington and Tehran, any impact on shipping routes such as the Strait of Hormuz, and whether other major forecasters revise their own outlooks. For observers, the episode is a reminder that geopolitical risk is difficult to quantify — and that forecasters' confidence, or lack of it, is itself useful information about the market's mood.