Corporate earnings are growing much faster than the economy. What Goldman strategists say about bubble concerns.

Goldman Sachs strategists, led by Ben Snider, recently addressed whether the gap between corporate earnings growth and broader economic growth signals a market bubble. According to the team's note, S&P 500 earnings per share growth is projected to slow to 11% in 2027 and 2028 — a moderation from the faster pace that has fueled bubble concerns among some investors.

The distinction matters because earnings growth outpacing GDP growth is not automatically a sign of speculative excess. Large-cap companies can expand profits through margin improvements, share buybacks, international revenue, or consolidation within their industries, even when the overall economy grows more slowly. In other words, the two measures capture different things.

What to watch is whether the projected slowdown unfolds as expected, and whether earnings growth remains broad-based across sectors or narrows to a handful of names. A deceleration to 11% would still represent solid growth, but it would narrow the cushion between corporate performance and economic reality — a dynamic worth monitoring as valuations and rate expectations evolve.