Posthaste: Tiff Macklem take note — markets have so far correctly called interest rate hikes, says analyst - Financial Post

An analyst cited by the Financial Post suggests that market pricing has, so far, correctly anticipated interest rate hikes — a point framed as a message for Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem. The observation matters because it speaks to the credibility of market-implied rate expectations, which are derived from instruments such as overnight index swaps and bond yields rather than from official forecasts.

If markets have reliably called past moves, that strengthens the case for treating market pricing as a meaningful signal of where policy may be heading. It also implies that when the central bank's guidance and market pricing diverge, the gap itself becomes informative — one side may be misreading the inflation or growth outlook.

What to watch: whether this track record holds as the policy cycle shifts. Market pricing can embed risk premiums and liquidity effects, so past accuracy is not a guarantee. For observers, the practical takeaway is to compare market-implied path with the central bank's own communications, and to note where the two disagree.