The stock market usually booms in the November-to-April stretch. This indicator suggests otherwise.

The idea that stocks tend to perform best from November through April is a well-known seasonal pattern, but it is not a guarantee. According to strategist Jim Paulsen, lagged indicators suggest this year's "best buying season" may not behave as it typically has, and his backtesting of the model to 1970 points to meagre returns over that stretch.

The takeaway is not that seasonality has stopped working, but that it is a tendency built on averages rather than a rule. When the economic or market backdrop differs from the conditions that produced those historical averages, the pattern can weaken or fail altogether.

For observers, the relevant question is what is actually driving returns now—growth, inflation, interest rates, and earnings—rather than the calendar alone. Seasonality can be a useful input, but it is one signal among many, and it should be weighed against current conditions rather than treated as a standalone reason to act.