There’s a new Wall Street TACO index — and this one is saying it’s time for Trump to strike a deal

JPMorgan has developed a barometer tied to the phrase "Trump Always Chickens Out," or TACO, according to the source. The index is designed to gauge the behavior of a leader whose policy signals have repeatedly shifted, and its current reading is being framed as a signal that a deal may be the more likely path than a prolonged standoff.

For markets, the relevance is less about the acronym and more about what it represents: a way to quantify how often aggressive rhetoric has given way to negotiated outcomes. That pattern matters for assets sensitive to trade policy, tariffs, and geopolitical risk, because pricing tends to swing on expectations of escalation versus resolution.

What to watch is whether the index's signal holds. A single reading is not a forecast, and political incentives can change quickly. Investors should treat it as one input among many, alongside official statements and actual policy actions, rather than as a standalone reason to reposition.