Here’s how much stocks could fall if the Democrats sweep Congress, according to BofA

Bank of America's Michael Hartnett flags the rising probability of a Democratic sweep in the midterms as a "meaningful" threat to risk appetite. The concern is not partisan but mechanical: single-party control of Congress could smooth the path for policies markets read as headwinds — tax changes, tighter regulation, or higher spending that pressures yields.

For investors, the takeaway is that election odds are becoming a priced-in variable rather than background noise. BofA's note is a scenario exercise, not a forecast, and it does not specify a precise downside target in the summary provided. What matters is the transmission channel: shifting probabilities can move positioning before any legislation exists.

Watch three things — polling aggregates and prediction-market odds, sector-level reactions in areas most exposed to policy change, and whether volatility markets begin pricing election risk more explicitly. Historically, midterm outcomes have often mattered less to long-run returns than the policy details that follow.