Here’s how Treasury yields could rise to 6% — even without market upheaval

The bond market will be closed Monday for Columbus Day, while the stock market operates on its normal schedule. The holiday pause comes as investors continue to debate how high Treasury yields could climb — a conversation in which some strategists have sketched out scenarios where 10-year yields approach 6%, driven by persistent deficits, heavy issuance, and expectations that interest rates stay elevated rather than by any single market shock.

That framing matters because it separates the level of yields from the process of getting there. A gradual repricing can still ripple through markets: higher yields raise the benchmark against which stocks, credit, and real estate are valued, and they increase borrowing costs for households and businesses. For income-oriented investors, the same move lifts the appeal of newly issued government debt.

With cash trading closed Monday, the next clear test comes Tuesday, when the market reopens and digests the latest economic data and Federal Reserve commentary. What to watch: whether long-dated yields push higher on their own momentum, and whether that rise is orderly or sharp.