More evidence that broad-market index funds remain unbeatable, even in the era of AI stock-picking

The report adds to a long-running debate about whether advances in artificial intelligence are changing the odds in active stock selection. Based on this year's results, the answer so far appears to be no: despite wider access to AI-driven research tools, most active managers have still not managed to outpace broad-market index funds, which simply track the market rather than trying to beat it.

The takeaway is less about technology and more about market structure. Broad indices capture the aggregate performance of hundreds or thousands of companies, and that built-in diversification is difficult to outperform consistently, especially after fees and trading costs. AI may sharpen research and speed up analysis, but it does not remove the fundamental challenge of forecasting which individual stocks will lead.

For investors, the development is a reminder to focus on what is controllable: costs, diversification, and time horizon. What to watch going forward is whether AI adoption produces a measurable, sustained shift in active managers' hit rates — or whether this year's evidence simply reinforces the case for low-cost, broad-market exposure.