‘Super’ El Niño may soon make your coffee super expensive

Agricultural markets are already under strain from record-high diesel prices and elevated fertilizer costs, both of which raise the expense of planting, harvesting, and transporting crops. A "super" El Niño—a particularly strong warming of the equatorial Pacific—is now widely expected to compound those pressures, threatening weather disruptions across key growing regions.

For coffee specifically, El Niño patterns have historically been associated with adverse conditions in major producing areas, from excessive rainfall to drought depending on the region. Because coffee is grown in relatively concentrated geographies, supply shocks can transmit quickly into wholesale and retail prices. The same dynamic applies across other agricultural commodities exposed to similar weather risk.

What to watch: confirmation of El Niño's intensity as the season develops, weather outcomes in major coffee-growing regions, and whether energy and fertilizer costs stay elevated. Together these factors shape supply expectations and, ultimately, consumer prices. For market observers, the key question is whether weather-driven supply losses prove temporary or persistent—a distinction that matters for how quickly prices might normalize once conditions shift.