Mideast oil exports are recovering. Fresh attacks in Saudi Arabia show risks remain.

Oil flows through the Persian Gulf are recovering, with exports approaching levels seen before the conflict, according to the report. That suggests the physical disruption to supply chains is easing and tanker traffic is normalizing. Yet prices have stayed stubbornly high, a reminder that crude markets price expectations and risk, not just current volumes.

The fresh attacks in Saudi Arabia explain part of that disconnect. Even as export volumes recover, renewed strikes highlight that infrastructure and shipping lanes remain exposed to disruption. Markets typically build a risk premium into prices when the possibility of future supply loss persists, so improving flows alone may not be enough to bring prices down.

For observers, the key question is whether the recovery in exports holds through further security incidents. Watch Gulf loadings data, shipping and insurance conditions, and any supply response from major producers. If flows stay near prewar levels and attacks subside, the risk premium could ease; if disruption widens, the recent price resilience may prove more than temporary.