Worried about this stock-market selloff? Relief may be coming after the midterms — no matter who wins.

Markets often look for patterns that can offer some reassurance during periods of volatility, and one such pattern centers on the U.S. midterm elections. According to historical data going back to 1950, the nine-month stretch between Election Day and the following June 30 has seen the S&P 500 deliver an average return of 15.5%. Notably, this pattern has held regardless of which party wins, suggesting that the market's relief may be tied more to the resolution of uncertainty than to a particular political outcome.

The logic is straightforward: elections introduce policy uncertainty, and markets tend to price in that ambiguity ahead of the vote. Once results are known—whatever they are—that uncertainty is removed, allowing investors to refocus on fundamentals such as earnings and economic growth. The historical average reflects this dynamic, though it is important to note that averages are just that: they smooth over wide variation from cycle to cycle.

For observers, the key takeaway is not a prediction but context. Past performance never guarantees future results, and a single historical pattern should be weighed alongside broader economic conditions. Still, the data offers a useful reminder that market anxiety around elections has often given way to calmer, and historically stronger, periods in the months that follow.