The Kospi index is the leading indicator for the global AI trade — and Goldman just slashed its forecast by 25%

Goldman Sachs strategist Tim Moe has cut his target for the Korean market, with the Kospi forecast reduced by 25%. According to the report, two forces drove the revision: a reduction in the growth multiple investors are willing to pay for AI-related stocks, and a rise in market volatility.

The Kospi's relevance extends well beyond Korea. The index is heavily weighted toward semiconductor and technology names that sit at the center of the global AI supply chain, which has led to its treatment as a leading indicator for the broader AI trade. When investors reassess how much they will pay for AI-linked earnings — as the lowered multiple suggests — that shift tends to surface first in markets with concentrated AI exposure.

What to watch: whether the multiple compression proves temporary or signals a more durable reset in AI valuations, and whether volatility continues to rise. Also worth monitoring is whether other AI-heavy indices begin to reflect the same reassessment. For now, Goldman's move offers a concrete data point on how one major house is recalibrating its expectations for AI-exposed equities.