Four reasons to start worrying about inflation — including the end of tariff refunds

Dennis DeBusschere of 22V Research has flagged four reasons to start worrying about inflation, one of which centers on the end of tariff refunds. According to his analysis, companies that had previously used tariff refunds to soften cost pressures will increasingly pass those higher costs on to consumers. In other words, a cushion that helped absorb some of the impact of tariffs is now being removed, and the resulting cost burden is expected to migrate from corporate margins to consumer prices.

The mechanism matters because it shifts where inflation pressure shows up. Rather than being contained within company financials, higher input costs may become more visible in retail pricing, potentially keeping inflation measures elevated for longer than some observers expect. That distinction is relevant for anyone tracking the trajectory of consumer prices and the broader inflation picture.

What to watch: whether businesses begin disclosing more frequent price increases tied to tariff costs, and whether inflation data begin reflecting this pass-through. The other three reasons cited by DeBusschere are not detailed here but form part of a broader case for caution on the inflation outlook. For now, the tariff-refund angle offers a concrete channel through which cost pressures could reach households.